All the world knows that the 99th Tour de France is in the firm grip of Team Sky’s Brad Wiggins after he dominated the stage 9 time trial on Monday. The news was so big in Britain that photos of Wiggins riding the time trial in his yellow skinsuit were on the front pages of every national newspaper in the UK. That was confirmation of how far the sport has come in a country where cycling was still regarded as a minor sport a decade ago. And it confirms how much pressure there will be on Wiggins and his Sky teammates in the next two weeks of what should develop into a fascinating edition of Le Tour.

First, though, I’d like to analyze the time trial on Monday that has put Wiggins and his English teammate Chris Froome in the driving seat of the 2012 Tour de France, and has put defending champion Cadel Evans of BMC Racing in a big hole. I spent some time Monday night after the stage in computing the actual times taken by the fastest 10 men on each of the time trial’s three sections that made up the challenging and scenic 41.5-kilometer course from Arc-et-Senans to Besançon.

Here are the distances, times and speeds for each section. And below the data I will interpret these results in regard to the performances of the riders who now occupy the top places in the overall classification:

1) Arc-et-Senans to Abbans-Dessus (16.5km)
1. Wiggins 21:05 (46.956 kph)
2. Froome 21:10
3. Van Garderen 21:34
4. Cancellara 21:37
5. Chavanel 21:44
6. P. Velits 21:50
7. Monfort 21:54
8. Menchov 21:59
9. Brajkovic s.t.
10. Zubeldia 22:01
(13. Evans 22:07)

2) Abbans-Dessus to Avanne-Aveney (15km)
1. Wiggins 17:57 (50.139 kph)
2. Cancellara 18:03
3. Van Garderen 18:04
4. Froome 18:08
5. Evans 18:14
6. Chavanel 18:22
7. Klöden 18:23
8. Nibali 18:28
9. T. Martin 18:33
10. Menchov 18:34

3) Avanne-Aveney to Besançon (10km)
1. Wiggins 12:22 (48.516 kph)
2. Cancellara 12:41
3. Froome s.t.
4. Chavanel 12:42
5. Evans 12:46
6. T. Martin 12:51
7. Van Garderen 12:52
8. P. Velits 12:58
9. Menchov 12:59
10. Nibali 13:02

The significant conclusions from this breakdown are:

(1) Just how dominant was the performance by Wiggins, who was fastest on each of the three sections. Since I began analyzing time trial like this several decades ago, I’ve rarely seen one man be the fastest on every part of a course. Their rides usually oscillate.


Fabian Cancellara

(2) Before the later riders started, the pre-race favorite for the stage win was Fabian Cancellara of RadioShack-Nissan-Trek. Yes, he lost to an exceptional Wiggins, taking only third place at the finish, a surprising 57 seconds back, but he lost the race before he even reached the 16.5-kilometr mark, where he had a time of 21:37 that proved to be only fourth best, and a whopping 32 seconds slower than Wiggins (that’s a loss of 2 seconds per kilometer!). After that “slow” start, Cancellara conceded only 6 seconds on the second stretch (that’s 0.4 seconds per kilometer) and 19 seconds on the last one (again close to 2 seconds per kilometer slower).


Tejay Van Garderen

(3) The revelation of the day was undoubtedly BMC’s Tejay Van Garderen, who said he started slowly and got better as the race went on. But the numbers tell a different story. He was third fastest on the two opening sections (respectively 29 seconds and seven seconds slower than Wiggins), and only seventh best on the last section (conceding 30 seconds to Wiggins in just 10 kilometers).


Christopher Froome

(4) Froome’s second place, ultimately 35 seconds behind his team leader, was not a complete shock because he actually beat Wiggins at the long time trial of the Vuelta a España last fall. This was more a confirmation that Froome has returned to his best form, and perhaps there’s even better to come! Over the three sections, Froome was second in the first, fourth in the second and third in the final one. Much less consistent than Wiggins, which is not surprising considering that Froome has only reached the top of the sport in the past nine months.


Cadel Evans

(5) Finally, and the most important in regard to the Tour’s eventual outcome, was the erratic riding of Evans. Like his junior BMC teammate Van Garderen, Australia’s defending Tour champ said he started cautiously. And he really did. He was only 13th best in that opening part, which was one of the easiest because of a strong tailwind and straighter, flatter road than later (other than the kilometer-long climb to the first time check). Evans conceded more than a minute in those 16.5 kilometers, a whopping loss of 3.47 seconds per kilometer. He as much better in the second two stretches, being fifth best on both of them. Had he been fifth best on the first section, too, he would have conceded about 1:20 to Wiggins—not much different from the one minute that Wiggins expected to be his time gain over Evans.